Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

6.66%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

6.96%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

7.94%

increased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:06 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.68 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 20% more than positive returnsδ = 0.68 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0295
7.00***
αARCH0.1892
17.27***
βGARCH0.8108
73.95***
γleverage0.1319
4.63***
δpower0.6763
5.17***

0.962

Persistence

18d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0295
7.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1892
17.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8108
73.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1319
4.63***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6763
5.17***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days