AES Corp/VA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
6.66%
1 Week
6.96%
1 Month
7.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.68 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0295 | 7.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1892 | 17.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8108 | 73.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.1319 | 4.63*** |
| δpower | 0.6763 | 5.17*** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0295 | 7.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1892 | 17.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8108 | 73.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1319 | 4.63*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6763 | 5.17*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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