AES Corp/VA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
8.94%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
9.54%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
11.47%
increased by 2.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0407 | 24.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1844 | 71.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8156 | 306.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1359 | 19.41*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9435 | 26.89*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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