V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
6.75%
1 Week
7.07%
1 Month
8.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.69 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0301 | 6.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1893 | 17.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8107 | 73.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.1319 | 4.64*** |
| δpower | 0.6886 | 5.27*** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0301 | 6.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1893 | 17.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8107 | 73.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1319 | 4.64*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6886 | 5.27*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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