V-Lab
RTX Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.64%
1 Week
21.63%
1 Month
18.87%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 30% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.86 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0476 | 8.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1896 | 18.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7937 | 73.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.1534 | 7.59*** |
| δpower | 0.8575 | 5.53*** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0476 | 8.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1896 | 18.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7937 | 73.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1534 | 7.59*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8575 | 5.53*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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