V-Lab
RTX Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
26.78%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
27.19%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
28.35%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0191 | 8.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0840 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8689 | 55.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0110 | -0.46 |
| γ2 | 0.0589 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | -0.1337 | -3.69*** |
| γ4 | 0.1607 | 4.72*** |
| γ5 | -0.1242 | -4.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.0872 | 2.55** |
| γ7 | -0.0409 | -1.22 |
| γ8 | -0.0084 | -0.39 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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