V-Lab
RTX Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
38.80%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
38.18%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Month
36.26%
decreased by 3.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0177 | 8.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8688 | 55.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0119 | -0.50 |
| γ2 | 0.0607 | 1.50 |
| γ3 | -0.1355 | -3.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.1619 | 4.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.1245 | -4.25*** |
| γ6 | 0.0862 | 2.51** |
| γ7 | -0.0387 | -1.16 |
| γ8 | -0.0104 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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