V-Lab
RTX Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
29.92%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
30.02%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
30.28%
decreased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0220 | 8.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 8.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8686 | 55.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0105 | -0.44 |
| γ2 | 0.0580 | 1.45 |
| γ3 | -0.1330 | -3.69*** |
| γ4 | 0.1603 | 4.72*** |
| γ5 | -0.1241 | -4.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.0874 | 2.56** |
| γ7 | -0.0415 | -1.24 |
| γ8 | -0.0079 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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