V-Lab
Remark Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
189.22%
decreased by 3.29%
1 Week
207.84%
increased by 15.33%
1 Month
248.12%
increased by 55.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 2003 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8769 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1389 | 6.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7843 | 24.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.1770 | 0.45 |
| γ3 | -0.4156 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 0.3045 | 1.53 |
| γ5 | -0.1767 | -1.00 |
| γ6 | 0.4517 | 2.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.4879 | -2.27** |
| γ8 | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.4105 | 2.01** |
| γ10 | -0.4343 | -2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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