V-Lab
Remark Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,524.24%
decreased by 271.95%
1 Week
1,414.49%
decreased by 381.70%
1 Month
1,102.13%
decreased by 694.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6863 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.2332 | 2.46** |
| βGARCH | 0.6866 | 7.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0444 | 0.16 |
| γ2 | 0.0893 | 0.22 |
| γ3 | -0.3338 | -1.35 |
| γ4 | 0.2524 | 1.17 |
| γ5 | -0.1515 | -0.84 |
| γ6 | 0.4283 | 2.55** |
| γ7 | -0.4511 | -1.91* |
| γ8 | -0.0666 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | 0.5390 | 2.35** |
| γ10 | -0.5795 | -3.25*** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6863 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2332 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6866 | 7.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0444 | 0.16 |
| γ2 | 0.0893 | 0.22 |
| γ3 | -0.3338 | -1.35 |
| γ4 | 0.2524 | 1.17 |
| γ5 | -0.1515 | -0.84 |
| γ6 | 0.4283 | 2.55** |
| γ7 | -0.4511 | -1.91* |
| γ8 | -0.0666 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | 0.5390 | 2.35** |
| γ10 | -0.5795 | -3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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