V-Lab
Remark Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,270.51%
decreased by 246.30%
1 Week
1,182.34%
decreased by 334.47%
1 Month
938.87%
decreased by 577.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 2003 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7036 | 2.55** |
| αARCH | 0.2223 | 2.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6939 | 8.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0410 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0957 | 0.24 |
| γ3 | -0.3389 | -1.39 |
| γ4 | 0.2538 | 1.20 |
| γ5 | -0.1470 | -0.83 |
| γ6 | 0.4223 | 2.55** |
| γ7 | -0.4527 | -1.93* |
| γ8 | -0.0575 | -0.20 |
| γ9 | 0.5311 | 2.29** |
| γ10 | -0.5781 | -3.30*** |
0.916
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7036 | 2.55** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2223 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6939 | 8.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0410 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0957 | 0.24 |
| γ3 | -0.3389 | -1.39 |
| γ4 | 0.2538 | 1.20 |
| γ5 | -0.1470 | -0.83 |
| γ6 | 0.4223 | 2.55** |
| γ7 | -0.4527 | -1.93* |
| γ8 | -0.0575 | -0.20 |
| γ9 | 0.5311 | 2.29** |
| γ10 | -0.5781 | -3.30*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
Other Remark Holdings Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities