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V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

277.99%

increased by 7.12%

1 Week

317.50%

increased by 46.63%

1 Month

441.04%

increased by 170.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1050 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3672
2.10**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2914
4.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7079
11.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ17.5310
0.50
γ2-7.1732
-0.37
γ3-16.1537
-0.79
γ464.3063
1.28
γ5-82.8377
-1.36
γ637.8647
1.04
γ7-0.2172
-0.02
γ8-13.6843
-1.64
γ923.3821
3.46***
γ10-19.3414
-5.08***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1050 days