Allurion Technologies Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
277.99%
increased by 7.12%
1 Week
317.50%
increased by 46.63%
1 Month
441.04%
increased by 170.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1050 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3672 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2914 | 4.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7079 | 11.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 7.5310 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | -7.1732 | -0.37 |
| γ3 | -16.1537 | -0.79 |
| γ4 | 64.3063 | 1.28 |
| γ5 | -82.8377 | -1.36 |
| γ6 | 37.8647 | 1.04 |
| γ7 | -0.2172 | -0.02 |
| γ8 | -13.6843 | -1.64 |
| γ9 | 23.3821 | 3.46*** |
| γ10 | -19.3414 | -5.08*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1050 days
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