V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
115.34%
decreased by 16.48%
1 Week
149.78%
increased by 17.96%
1 Month
217.27%
increased by 85.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0907 | 1.41 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5122 | 4.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4261 | 7.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.6179 | 1.64 |
| γ2 | -14.6078 | -1.51 |
| γ3 | 4.2445 | 0.70 |
| γ4 | 3.4435 | 1.03 |
| γ5 | -4.6900 | -1.86* |
| γ6 | 3.9501 | 1.21 |
| γ7 | -4.0787 | -1.14 |
| γ8 | 4.3894 | 1.43 |
| γ9 | -5.2322 | -1.57 |
| γ10 | 4.4523 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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