V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
71.68%
decreased by 3.78%
1 Week
84.12%
increased by 8.66%
1 Month
111.83%
increased by 36.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1411 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5106 | 4.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4331 | 7.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.9315 | 1.62 |
| γ2 | -15.0024 | -1.49 |
| γ3 | 4.2761 | 0.69 |
| γ4 | 3.5098 | 1.03 |
| γ5 | -4.6647 | -1.77* |
| γ6 | 3.8501 | 1.15 |
| γ7 | -3.9657 | -1.12 |
| γ8 | 4.3335 | 1.45 |
| γ9 | -5.2594 | -1.57 |
| γ10 | 4.5380 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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