V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
91.93%
decreased by 26.57%
1 Week
103.50%
decreased by 15.00%
1 Month
128.94%
increased by 10.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 02:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0376 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.5031 | 4.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4288 | 7.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.3964 | 1.71* |
| γ2 | -14.3997 | -1.57 |
| γ3 | 4.4283 | 0.76 |
| γ4 | 3.1767 | 0.97 |
| γ5 | -4.6011 | -1.96** |
| γ6 | 3.9926 | 1.28 |
| γ7 | -4.1428 | -1.13 |
| γ8 | 4.3758 | 1.33 |
| γ9 | -5.1792 | -1.55 |
| γ10 | 4.5310 | 1.67* |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0376 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5031 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4288 | 7.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.3964 | 1.71* |
| γ2 | -14.3997 | -1.57 |
| γ3 | 4.4283 | 0.76 |
| γ4 | 3.1767 | 0.97 |
| γ5 | -4.6011 | -1.96** |
| γ6 | 3.9926 | 1.28 |
| γ7 | -4.1428 | -1.13 |
| γ8 | 4.3758 | 1.33 |
| γ9 | -5.1792 | -1.55 |
| γ10 | 4.5310 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
Other Niki BioSolutions Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities