Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
25.49%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
26.02%
increased by 0.70%
1 Month
27.63%
increased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4123 | 7.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.0739 | 6.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8901 | 50.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0985 | -2.72*** |
| γ2 | 0.2473 | 4.26*** |
| γ3 | -0.2876 | -5.84*** |
| γ4 | 0.2193 | 4.55*** |
| γ5 | -0.0912 | -2.00** |
| γ6 | 0.0106 | 0.25 |
| γ7 | -0.0057 | -0.19 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4123 | 7.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 6.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8901 | 50.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0985 | -2.72*** |
| γ2 | 0.2473 | 4.26*** |
| γ3 | -0.2876 | -5.84*** |
| γ4 | 0.2193 | 4.55*** |
| γ5 | -0.0912 | -2.00** |
| γ6 | 0.0106 | 0.25 |
| γ7 | -0.0057 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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