V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.18%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
28.52%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
29.59%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3977 | 7.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0737 | 6.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8906 | 51.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1029 | -2.81*** |
| γ2 | 0.2549 | 4.33*** |
| γ3 | -0.2925 | -5.85*** |
| γ4 | 0.2211 | 4.52*** |
| γ5 | -0.0911 | -1.97** |
| γ6 | 0.0117 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | -0.0082 | -0.26 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3977 | 7.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0737 | 6.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8906 | 51.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1029 | -2.81*** |
| γ2 | 0.2549 | 4.33*** |
| γ3 | -0.2925 | -5.85*** |
| γ4 | 0.2211 | 4.52*** |
| γ5 | -0.0911 | -1.97** |
| γ6 | 0.0117 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | -0.0082 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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