V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.16%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
26.52%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
27.77%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.64) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0560 | 2.22** |
| αARCH | 0.0862 | 9.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8945 | 92.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.6392 | 3.51*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0560 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0862 | 9.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8945 | 92.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6392 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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