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Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

26.16%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Week

26.52%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Month

27.77%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.64) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0560
2.22**
αARCH0.0862
9.47***
βGARCH0.8945
92.91***
γleverage0.6392
3.51***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0560
2.22**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0862
9.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8945
92.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6392
3.51***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days