V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
22.18%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
22.51%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
23.58%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.41) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0686 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0711 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9029 | 71.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4083 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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