V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.25%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
24.31%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
24.52%
decreased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 4.91 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8140 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0550 | 6.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9885 | 91.72*** |
| νDF | 4.9084 | 1.91* |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8140 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 6.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 91.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9084 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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