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Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

27.73%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

32.91%

increased by 4.66%

1 Month

44.93%

increased by 16.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 3.64 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst17.1955
0.83
αARCH0.1949
3.95***
βGARCH0.9539
18.18***
νDF3.6413
2.16**

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.1955
0.83
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1949
3.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9539
18.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6413
2.16**

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days