Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

40.43%

decreased by 6.49%

1 Week

43.26%

decreased by 3.66%

1 Month

50.51%

increased by 3.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifev = 3.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst16.0133
0.78
αARCH0.1874
3.18***
βGARCH0.9482
15.12***
νDF3.7979
1.62

0.948

Persistence

13d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.0133
0.78
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1874
3.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9482
15.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7979
1.62

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days