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V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

64.57%

increased by 2.44%

1 Week

64.71%

increased by 2.58%

1 Month

65.12%

increased by 2.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.3375
3.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1766
13.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9527
69.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6938
7.35***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days