Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
47.10%
decreased by 7.59%
1 Week
48.53%
decreased by 6.16%
1 Month
52.50%
decreased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.54 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 15.2458 | 0.89 |
| αscore | 0.1910 | 2.82*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9518 | 18.75*** |
| νDF | 4.5438 | 1.22 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 15.2458 | 0.89 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1910 | 2.82*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9518 | 18.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5438 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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