V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
64.57%
increased by 2.44%
1 Week
64.71%
increased by 2.58%
1 Month
65.12%
increased by 2.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.3375 | 3.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1766 | 13.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9527 | 69.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6938 | 7.35*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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