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Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

47.10%

decreased by 7.59%

1 Week

48.53%

decreased by 6.16%

1 Month

52.50%

decreased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.54 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run15.2458
0.89
αscore0.1910
2.82***
βpersistence0.9518
18.75***
νDF4.5438
1.22

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

15.2458
0.89
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1910
2.82***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9518
18.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5438
1.22

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days