V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.73%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
32.91%
increased by 4.66%
1 Month
44.93%
increased by 16.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 3.64 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 17.1955 | 0.83 |
| αARCH | 0.1949 | 3.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9539 | 18.18*** |
| νDF | 3.6413 | 2.16** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.1955 | 0.83 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1949 | 3.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9539 | 18.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6413 | 2.16** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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