V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
40.43%
decreased by 6.49%
1 Week
43.26%
decreased by 3.66%
1 Month
50.51%
increased by 3.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifev = 3.80 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.0133 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.1874 | 3.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9482 | 15.12*** |
| νDF | 3.7979 | 1.62 |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.0133 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1874 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9482 | 15.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7979 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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