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Mount Logan Capital Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

37.25%

decreased by 4.94%

1 Week

42.35%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

68.47%

increased by 26.28%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.081 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.081 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2846
1.36
αARCH0.3603
3.71***
βGARCH0.7207
11.13***
γleverage-0.1827
-0.43

1.081

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2846
1.36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3603
3.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7207
11.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1827
-0.43

Persistence:

1.081

Half-life:

-