V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
37.25%
decreased by 4.94%
1 Week
42.35%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
68.47%
increased by 26.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.081 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.081 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2846 | 1.36 |
| αARCH | 0.3603 | 3.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7207 | 11.13*** |
| γleverage | -0.1827 | -0.43 |
1.081
Persistence-
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2846 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3603 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7207 | 11.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1827 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
1.081
Half-life:
-
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