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V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

44.84%

increased by 0.56%

1 Week

45.62%

increased by 1.34%

1 Month

44.92%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9950
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1623
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7028
0.00

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days