Mount Logan Capital Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.83%
1 Week
98,153.89%
1 Month
475,067,153,147,847,100,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 123.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4123 | 110.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -123.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2120 | 80.00*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0078 | 166.49*** |
Persistence:
0.662
Half-life:
2 days
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