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V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

21.83%

decreased by 1.83%

1 Week

98,153.89%

increased by 98,130.23%

1 Month

475,067,153,147,847,100,000.00%

increased by 475,067,153,147,847,100,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
123.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4123
110.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-123.73***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2120
80.00***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0078
166.49***

Persistence:

0.662

Half-life:

2 days