Mount Logan Capital Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
27.57%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
27.80%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
27.85%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3011 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0289 | 0.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 61.5617 | 0.40 |
| γ2 | -11.6464 | -0.05 |
| γ3 | -428.5598 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 927.3429 | 5.69*** |
| γ5 | -876.6873 | -4.97*** |
| γ6 | 371.2793 | 1.65* |
| γ7 | -93.8806 | -0.47 |
| γ8 | 244.7514 | 1.53 |
| γ9 | -557.6370 | -2.73*** |
Persistence:
0.029
Half-life:
0 days
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