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V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

27.57%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

27.80%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

27.85%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3011
2.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0289
0.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ161.5617
0.40
γ2-11.6464
-0.05
γ3-428.5598
-2.31**
γ4927.3429
5.69***
γ5-876.6873
-4.97***
γ6371.2793
1.65*
γ7-93.8806
-0.47
γ8244.7514
1.53
γ9-557.6370
-2.73***

Persistence:

0.029

Half-life:

0 days