Mount Logan Capital Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
52.94%
1 Week
55.35%
1 Month
62.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.01 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2430 | 1.14 |
| αARCH | 0.2384 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7616 | 8.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0457 | 0.26 |
| δpower | 1.0102 | 1.45 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2430 | 1.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2384 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7616 | 8.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0457 | 0.26 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0102 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
Other Mount Logan Capital Inc Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities