Mount Logan Capital Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
53.16%
decreased by 4.65%
1 Week
55.31%
decreased by 2.50%
1 Month
62.20%
increased by 4.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2042 | 3.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1761 | 10.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8239 | 41.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0305 | -0.58 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0573 | 5.78*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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