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V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

53.16%

decreased by 4.65%

1 Week

55.31%

decreased by 2.50%

1 Month

62.20%

increased by 4.39%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2042
3.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1761
10.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8239
41.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0305
-0.58
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0573
5.78***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days