QVC Group Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
241.80%
1 Week
241.92%
1 Month
242.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 46679 trading days (~185.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 12.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0196 | 0.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9804 | 666.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.36 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2795 | 16.10*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
46679 days
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities