V-Lab
John Wiley & Sons Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
46.84%
increased by 5.37%
1 Week
46.51%
increased by 5.04%
1 Month
45.36%
increased by 3.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0686 | 18.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1032 | 36.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8917 | 280.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3061 | 12.52*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1083 | 27.03*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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