V-Lab
Intel Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
58.55%
1 Week
58.28%
1 Month
57.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. The volatility power δ = 0.87 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0353 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0650 | 5.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9350 | 75.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.1578 | 1.50 |
| δpower | 0.8667 | 5.22*** |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0353 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 5.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9350 | 75.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1578 | 1.50 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8667 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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