Intel Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
59.03%
1 Week
58.75%
1 Month
57.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. The volatility power δ = 0.87 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0353 | 3.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0647 | 5.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9353 | 75.82*** |
| γleverage | 0.1567 | 1.49 |
| δpower | 0.8712 | 5.25*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0353 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0647 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9353 | 75.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1567 | 1.49 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8712 | 5.25*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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