V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.56%
1 Week
22.66%
1 Month
23.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 106% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0234 | 5.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0755 | 9.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9245 | 121.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.2641 | 3.99*** |
| δpower | 1.3375 | 7.10*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0234 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 9.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9245 | 121.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2641 | 3.99*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3375 | 7.10*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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