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V-Lab
V-Lab

Alphabet Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

28.21%

decreased by 1.20%

1 Week

28.83%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Month

30.99%

increased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Alphabet Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0451
3.10***
αARCH0.0821
5.13***
βGARCH0.9046
44.60***
γleverage0.1878
1.29
δpower0.5000
2.85***

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0451
3.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0821
5.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9046
44.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1878
1.29
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.85***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days