Boeing Co/The APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
35.11%
1 Week
35.16%
1 Month
35.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 199% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0412 | 3.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0612 | 7.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9337 | 126.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.3598 | 4.81*** |
| δpower | 1.4520 | 6.98*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0412 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0612 | 7.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9337 | 126.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3598 | 4.81*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4520 | 6.98*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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