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V-Lab

Walt Disney Co/The APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

26.78%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

27.03%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

27.95%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Walt Disney Co/The APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 96% more than positive returnsδ = 1.05 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0306
3.85***
αARCH0.0645
6.42***
βGARCH0.9355
95.35***
γleverage0.3089
2.99***
δpower1.0512
4.87***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0306
3.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0645
6.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9355
95.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3089
2.99***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0512
4.87***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days