V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.32%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
28.53%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
29.31%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0307 | 15.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0647 | 25.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9353 | 380.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3082 | 11.93*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0493 | 19.45*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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