V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.78%
1 Week
27.03%
1 Month
27.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0306 | 3.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0645 | 6.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9355 | 95.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.3089 | 2.99*** |
| δpower | 1.0512 | 4.87*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0306 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0645 | 6.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9355 | 95.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3089 | 2.99*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0512 | 4.87*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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