Walt Disney Co/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
23.38%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
23.84%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
25.14%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 168% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 168% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0332 | 3.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8899 | 52.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.0558 | 3.81*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0163 | 0.89 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0265 | 1.32 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9686 | 38.56*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0332 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8899 | 52.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0558 | 3.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0163 | 0.89 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0265 | 1.32 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9686 | 38.56*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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