V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
29.11%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
29.15%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
29.07%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 169% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0333 | 15.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8893 | 172.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0562 | 12.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0165 | 3.49*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0269 | 5.35*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9683 | 156.93*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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