V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
27.18%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
27.31%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
27.84%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 169% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0332 | 15.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8895 | 172.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0562 | 12.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0165 | 3.48*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0269 | 5.35*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9682 | 156.59*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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