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V-Lab

Walt Disney Co/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

25.13%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

25.51%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

26.69%

increased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Walt Disney Co/The MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 169% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 169% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0332
3.96***
βGARCH0.8895
51.81***
γleverage0.0561
3.82***
λ₁tau intercept0.0165
0.89
λ₂forecast adj.0.0269
1.32
λ₃tau persistence0.9682
38.07***

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0332
3.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8895
51.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0561
3.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0165
0.89
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0269
1.32
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9682
38.07***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days