Walt Disney Co/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
21.82%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
22.08%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
23.04%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 196% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 196% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0438 | 2.57** |
| αARCH | 0.0264 | 3.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9368 | 123.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.0518 | 2.40** |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0438 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0264 | 3.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9368 | 123.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0518 | 2.40** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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