Walt Disney Co/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.29%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
25.45%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
26.03%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 198% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 198% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0435 | 2.57** |
| αARCH | 0.0262 | 3.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9372 | 124.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.0518 | 2.41** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0435 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0262 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9372 | 124.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0518 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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