V-Lab
Marex Group Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.14%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
41.44%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
45.50%
increased by 5.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 25, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4029 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8814 | 12.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.1792 | 1.15 |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4029 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8814 | 12.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1792 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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