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V-Lab

Marex Group Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

42.59%

decreased by 1.64%

1 Week

42.70%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Month

42.93%

decreased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Marex Group Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 25, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.37 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst7.3939
0.84
αARCH0.0941
0.92
βGARCH0.8948
8.26***
νDF4.3683
0.36

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.3939
0.84
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0941
0.92
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8948
8.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3683
0.36

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days