Shengfeng Development Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
130.88%
decreased by 19.22%
1 Week
132.27%
decreased by 17.83%
1 Month
137.28%
decreased by 12.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 2.28 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 124.1286 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.1059 | 12.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9868 | 124.26*** |
| νDF | 2.2778 | 51.09*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 124.1286 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 12.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9868 | 124.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2778 | 51.09*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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