Shengfeng Development Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
139.84%
decreased by 34.28%
1 Week
140.67%
decreased by 33.45%
1 Month
141.59%
decreased by 32.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.64 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2688 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5397 | 9.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2529 | -1.73* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6407 | 6.31*** |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
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