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V-Lab

American Express Co APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

23.97%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

24.32%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

25.65%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of American Express Co APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.18 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0311
7.81***
αARCH0.0681
10.12***
βGARCH0.9319
160.06***
γleverage0.6397
6.00***
δpower1.1754
9.57***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0311
7.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0681
10.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9319
160.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6397
6.00***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1754
9.57***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days