V-Lab
American Express Co APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.97%
1 Week
24.32%
1 Month
25.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 7.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0681 | 10.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9319 | 160.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.6397 | 6.00*** |
| δpower | 1.1754 | 9.57*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 7.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0681 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9319 | 160.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6397 | 6.00*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1754 | 9.57*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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