V-Lab
American Express Co MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
21.41%
increased by 0.87%
1 Week
21.87%
increased by 1.33%
1 Month
23.54%
increased by 3.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0546 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1979 | 15.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7941 | 78.37*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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