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V-Lab

American Express Co GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026

1 Day

22.15%

increased by 0.86%

1 Week

22.45%

increased by 1.16%

1 Month

23.58%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 02:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of American Express Co GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0399
4.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0773
10.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9161
135.54***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days