V-Lab
American Express Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
26.59%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
26.88%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
27.88%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0082 | 5.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8852 | 291.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1368 | 38.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0109 | 7.69*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0273 | 6.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9701 | 214.78*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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