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V-Lab

American Express Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

38.23%

increased by 9.84%

1 Week

37.79%

increased by 9.40%

1 Month

36.33%

increased by 7.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of American Express Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0082
5.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8854
293.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1372
38.58***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0109
7.74***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0272
6.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9703
216.39***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days