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V-Lab

American Express Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

26.59%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

26.88%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

27.88%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of American Express Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0082
5.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8852
291.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1368
38.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0109
7.69***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0273
6.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9701
214.78***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days