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V-Lab

Ulta Beauty Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

31.36%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

32.69%

increased by 0.45%

1 Month

37.20%

increased by 4.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ulta Beauty Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8936
62.63***
γleverage0.1893
5.26***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.93
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.4577
0.49

0.988

Persistence

59d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8936
62.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1893
5.26***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.93
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4577
0.49

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days