V-Lab
Ulta Beauty Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
31.36%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
32.69%
increased by 0.45%
1 Month
37.20%
increased by 4.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8936 | 62.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.1893 | 5.26*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.93 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4577 | 0.49 |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8936 | 62.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1893 | 5.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.93 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4577 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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