Intel Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
177.75%
increased by 103.47%
1 Week
164.71%
increased by 90.43%
1 Month
132.05%
increased by 57.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 107% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 107% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0435 | 3.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8125 | 24.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.0464 | 2.17** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0404 | 0.84 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0766 | 1.18 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9189 | 13.12*** |
0.879
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8125 | 24.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0464 | 2.17** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0404 | 0.84 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0766 | 1.18 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9189 | 13.12*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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