V-Lab
PowerBank Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
145.99%
1 Week
143.77%
1 Month
138.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 332% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.4905 | 8.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6019 | 15.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.3769 | -4.85*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.67 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8570 | 3.40*** |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4905 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6019 | 15.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3769 | -4.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.67 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8570 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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