PowerBank Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
74.59%
1 Week
86.75%
1 Month
108.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 326% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.4609 | 8.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6098 | 15.28*** |
| γleverage | -0.3526 | -4.57*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.55 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8414 | 2.58*** |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4609 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6098 | 15.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3526 | -4.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.55 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8414 | 2.58*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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