V-Lab
PowerBank Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
72.15%
1 Week
83.87%
1 Month
105.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 392% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.4679 | 8.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6247 | 17.73*** |
| γleverage | -0.3727 | -4.94*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.63 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8416 | 2.97*** |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4679 | 8.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6247 | 17.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3727 | -4.94*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.63 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8416 | 2.97*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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