V-Lab
PowerBank Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
75.20%
1 Week
82.70%
1 Month
99.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 112% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8307 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1979 | 8.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7458 | 20.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3316 | -4.17*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0870 | 11.25*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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