V-Lab
TON Strategy Co APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
121.34%
increased by 16.18%
1 Week
131.90%
increased by 26.74%
1 Month
162.57%
increased by 57.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1876 | 19.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7985 | 47.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1167 | 1.89* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1269 | 9.49*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
Other TON Strategy Co Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities