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V-Lab

TON Strategy Co APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

121.34%

increased by 16.18%

1 Week

131.90%

increased by 26.74%

1 Month

162.57%

increased by 57.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of TON Strategy Co APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
2.42**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1876
19.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7985
47.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1167
1.89*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1269
9.49***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days