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Procter & Gamble Co/The APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.69%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

16.96%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

17.93%

increased by 1.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Procter & Gamble Co/The APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 163% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 163% more than positive returnsδ = 1.03 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0243
5.22***
αARCH0.0748
9.00***
βGARCH0.9252
112.10***
γleverage0.4357
5.35***
δpower1.0341
7.82***

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0243
5.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
9.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9252
112.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4357
5.35***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0341
7.82***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days