V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.69%
1 Week
16.96%
1 Month
17.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 163% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0243 | 5.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0748 | 9.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9252 | 112.10*** |
| γleverage | 0.4357 | 5.35*** |
| δpower | 1.0341 | 7.82*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0243 | 5.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 9.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9252 | 112.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4357 | 5.35*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0341 | 7.82*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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