V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.19%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
19.38%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
20.08%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 164% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 20.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0744 | 35.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9256 | 447.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4385 | 21.36*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0311 | 31.09*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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