V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
36.63%
1 Week
36.69%
1 Month
36.91%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 221% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.87 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0276 | 4.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0430 | 6.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9539 | 134.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.5844 | 5.60*** |
| δpower | 0.8717 | 5.20*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0276 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0430 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9539 | 134.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5844 | 5.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8717 | 5.20*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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