Caterpillar Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
49.21%
1 Week
48.97%
1 Month
48.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 230% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.88 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0273 | 4.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0427 | 6.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9544 | 137.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.5893 | 5.63*** |
| δpower | 0.8822 | 5.27*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0273 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9544 | 137.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5893 | 5.63*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8822 | 5.27*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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