Caterpillar Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
44.08%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
43.74%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Month
42.55%
decreased by 2.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8828 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 6.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9348 | 101.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0034 | -0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0023 | -0.23 |
| γ3 | 0.0151 | 2.64*** |
| γ4 | -0.0138 | -3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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