V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.91%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
39.73%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
39.10%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8821 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0430 | 6.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9355 | 102.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0034 | -0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0022 | -0.22 |
| γ3 | 0.0150 | 2.63*** |
| γ4 | -0.0138 | -3.41*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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