V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
487.46%
decreased by 2.67%
1 Week
555.58%
increased by 65.45%
1 Month
604.30%
increased by 114.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9312 | 2.35** |
| αARCH | 0.2131 | 2.12** |
| βGARCH | 0.4557 | 2.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 115.6418 | 3.31*** |
| γ2 | -137.9769 | -2.59*** |
| γ3 | 27.2256 | 0.56 |
| γ4 | -18.7012 | -0.31 |
| γ5 | 54.0194 | 0.88 |
| γ6 | -69.4671 | -1.64 |
0.669
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9312 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2131 | 2.12** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4557 | 2.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 115.6418 | 3.31*** |
| γ2 | -137.9769 | -2.59*** |
| γ3 | 27.2256 | 0.56 |
| γ4 | -18.7012 | -0.31 |
| γ5 | 54.0194 | 0.88 |
| γ6 | -69.4671 | -1.64 |
Persistence:
0.669
Half-life:
2 days
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