CID Holdco Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
437.06%
decreased by 4.27%
1 Week
497.83%
increased by 56.50%
1 Month
547.72%
increased by 106.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2938 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.2161 | 2.53** |
| βGARCH | 0.4926 | 3.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 62.2307 | 2.50** |
| γ2 | -75.9598 | -2.09** |
| γ3 | 9.1800 | 0.33 |
| γ4 | 25.4668 | 1.00 |
| γ5 | -37.9426 | -2.18** |
0.709
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2938 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2161 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4926 | 3.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 62.2307 | 2.50** |
| γ2 | -75.9598 | -2.09** |
| γ3 | 9.1800 | 0.33 |
| γ4 | 25.4668 | 1.00 |
| γ5 | -37.9426 | -2.18** |
Persistence:
0.709
Half-life:
2 days
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