V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
216.30%
decreased by 18.80%
1 Week
214.86%
decreased by 20.24%
1 Month
213.58%
decreased by 21.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3992 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4347 | 2.19** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2656 | 2.15** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3283 | -3.19*** |
Persistence:
0.700
Half-life:
2 days
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