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CID Holdco Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

487.46%

decreased by 2.67%

1 Week

555.58%

increased by 65.45%

1 Month

604.30%

increased by 114.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of CID Holdco Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9312
2.35**
αARCH0.2131
2.12**
βGARCH0.4557
2.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1115.6418
3.31***
γ2-137.9769
-2.59***
γ327.2256
0.56
γ4-18.7012
-0.31
γ554.0194
0.88
γ6-69.4671
-1.64

0.669

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9312
2.35**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2131
2.12**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4557
2.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1115.6418
3.31***
γ2-137.9769
-2.59***
γ327.2256
0.56
γ4-18.7012
-0.31
γ554.0194
0.88
γ6-69.4671
-1.64

Persistence:

0.669

Half-life:

2 days