V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
133.52%
increased by 14.44%
1 Week
152.72%
increased by 33.64%
1 Month
167.72%
increased by 48.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4446 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3866 | 1.97** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3088 | 2.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1160 | -2.46** |
Persistence:
0.695
Half-life:
2 days
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