V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
182.40%
decreased by 89.96%
1 Week
201.90%
decreased by 70.46%
1 Month
219.10%
decreased by 53.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3996 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4652 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2570 | 2.21** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3380 | -3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.722
Half-life:
2 days
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