V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
192.67%
1 Week
193.98%
1 Month
199.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 54% more than positive returns
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0050 | 7.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3487 | 10.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5570 | 24.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1888 | 2.92*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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