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V-Lab

CID Holdco Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

192.67%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

193.98%

increased by 0.43%

1 Month

199.14%

increased by 5.59%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of CID Holdco Inc AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 54% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0050
7.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3487
10.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5570
24.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1888
2.92***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days