V-Lab
Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
31.66%
decreased by 5.08%
1 Week
34.37%
decreased by 2.37%
1 Month
35.90%
decreased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2049 | 14.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3787 | 8.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2309 | 7.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0577 | -0.85 |
Persistence:
0.581
Half-life:
1 days
Other Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Equities