V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
33.67%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
33.83%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
34.36%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 46% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 46% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1278 | 7.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.1165 | 8.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8331 | 85.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0535 | 2.25** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1278 | 7.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1165 | 8.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8331 | 85.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0535 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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