V-Lab
Onterris Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
89.21%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Week
89.26%
decreased by 1.87%
1 Month
89.50%
decreased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2020 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0206 | 1.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0300 | 2.23** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9478 | 103.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0444 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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