Onterris Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
89.01%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
91.73%
increased by 3.08%
1 Month
92.36%
increased by 3.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1252 | 7.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0768 | 1.53 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0709 | 0.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.8692 | -1.12 |
| γ2 | 2.3124 | 2.01** |
| γ3 | -2.7370 | -3.40*** |
| γ4 | 2.3774 | 2.86*** |
| γ5 | -1.4548 | -1.39 |
| γ6 | -0.5657 | -0.38 |
| γ7 | 3.4592 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.148
Half-life:
0 days
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