V-Lab
Etsy Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
52.51%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
53.73%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
55.83%
increased by 2.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8501 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7891 | 10.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.2782 | 2.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.3372 | -2.60*** |
| γ3 | 0.0208 | 0.25 |
| γ4 | 0.1326 | 1.30 |
Persistence:
0.861
Half-life:
5 days
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