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V-Lab

Etsy Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

52.51%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Week

53.73%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

55.83%

increased by 2.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Etsy Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8501
4.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0717
3.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7891
10.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.2782
2.94***
γ2-0.3372
-2.60***
γ30.0208
0.25
γ40.1326
1.30

Persistence:

0.861

Half-life:

5 days