V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
108.90%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
111.33%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
117.91%
increased by 7.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6727 | 6.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1144 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8300 | 43.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0567 | -0.94 |
| γ2 | 0.0653 | 0.68 |
| γ3 | -0.0500 | -0.79 |
| γ4 | 0.0541 | 1.14 |
| γ5 | 0.0463 | 0.82 |
| γ6 | -0.1356 | -1.50 |
| γ7 | 0.1562 | 1.60 |
| γ8 | -0.1175 | -1.38 |
| γ9 | -0.0425 | -0.40 |
| γ10 | 0.2970 | 2.16** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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