V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
64.57%
decreased by 3.76%
1 Week
64.96%
decreased by 3.37%
1 Month
66.13%
decreased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7674 | 7.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8496 | 43.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0041 | -0.22 |
| γ2 | -0.0322 | -1.02 |
| γ3 | 0.0708 | 2.19** |
| γ4 | -0.0519 | -1.33 |
| γ5 | 0.0476 | 1.46 |
| γ6 | -0.0767 | -3.03*** |
| γ7 | 0.0693 | 3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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