Big Sky Industrial Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
46.92%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Week
48.44%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
52.74%
increased by 4.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7565 | 6.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1114 | 7.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8436 | 47.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0201 | -0.31 |
| γ2 | 0.0098 | 0.09 |
| γ3 | -0.0187 | -0.27 |
| γ4 | 0.0340 | 0.65 |
| γ5 | 0.0595 | 0.96 |
| γ6 | -0.1472 | -1.51 |
| γ7 | 0.1716 | 1.66* |
| γ8 | -0.1459 | -1.67* |
| γ9 | 0.0253 | 0.25 |
| γ10 | 0.0701 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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