V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
59.76%
decreased by 3.32%
1 Week
60.25%
decreased by 2.83%
1 Month
61.71%
decreased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7365 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1107 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8454 | 47.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0241 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.0136 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | -0.0173 | -0.25 |
| γ4 | 0.0334 | 0.63 |
| γ5 | 0.0558 | 0.91 |
| γ6 | -0.1410 | -1.46 |
| γ7 | 0.1673 | 1.61 |
| γ8 | -0.1466 | -1.69* |
| γ9 | 0.0339 | 0.34 |
| γ10 | 0.0592 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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