V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
82.52%
decreased by 5.56%
1 Week
81.57%
decreased by 6.51%
1 Month
78.57%
decreased by 9.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7668 | 7.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8494 | 43.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0037 | -0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.0329 | -1.04 |
| γ3 | 0.0712 | 2.21** |
| γ4 | -0.0521 | -1.34 |
| γ5 | 0.0477 | 1.47 |
| γ6 | -0.0763 | -3.02*** |
| γ7 | 0.0686 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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