Procter & Gamble Co/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
22.24%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
21.87%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Month
20.92%
decreased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1206 | 7.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.0851 | 8.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8401 | 46.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0147 | 0.51 |
| γ2 | 0.0237 | 0.56 |
| γ3 | -0.1446 | -4.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.1988 | 6.53*** |
| γ5 | -0.1360 | -4.12*** |
| γ6 | 0.0620 | 1.73* |
| γ7 | -0.0087 | -0.27 |
| γ8 | -0.0180 | -0.64 |
| γ9 | 0.0052 | 0.26 |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1206 | 7.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0851 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8401 | 46.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0147 | 0.51 |
| γ2 | 0.0237 | 0.56 |
| γ3 | -0.1446 | -4.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.1988 | 6.53*** |
| γ5 | -0.1360 | -4.12*** |
| γ6 | 0.0620 | 1.73* |
| γ7 | -0.0087 | -0.27 |
| γ8 | -0.0180 | -0.64 |
| γ9 | 0.0052 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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