V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.52%
increased by 0.52%
1 Week
16.90%
increased by 0.90%
1 Month
17.82%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1140 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0860 | 8.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 45.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0123 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | 0.0285 | 0.66 |
| γ3 | -0.1490 | -4.66*** |
| γ4 | 0.2006 | 6.55*** |
| γ5 | -0.1340 | -4.00*** |
| γ6 | 0.0577 | 1.60 |
| γ7 | -0.0037 | -0.11 |
| γ8 | -0.0230 | -0.81 |
| γ9 | 0.0088 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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