V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.69%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
17.91%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
18.44%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1135 | 7.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0849 | 8.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8406 | 46.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0124 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | 0.0286 | 0.66 |
| γ3 | -0.1494 | -4.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.2007 | 6.52*** |
| γ5 | -0.1335 | -3.96*** |
| γ6 | 0.0571 | 1.57 |
| γ7 | -0.0035 | -0.11 |
| γ8 | -0.0222 | -0.77 |
| γ9 | 0.0075 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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