V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.83%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
19.74%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
19.53%
decreased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1125 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0851 | 8.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8404 | 46.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0119 | 0.41 |
| γ2 | 0.0299 | 0.69 |
| γ3 | -0.1508 | -4.67*** |
| γ4 | 0.2011 | 6.50*** |
| γ5 | -0.1326 | -3.90*** |
| γ6 | 0.0555 | 1.52 |
| γ7 | -0.0021 | -0.07 |
| γ8 | -0.0227 | -0.79 |
| γ9 | 0.0074 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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